Julie's Blog Posts
The Dow Jones dropped 3% on Thursday on news of President Trump’s trade sanctions against China, which might seem understandable, except that there aren’t any sanctions yet and the whole thing was well-flagged anyway. The headline in the Financial Times, and just about every other news outlet said: “Trump to impose 25% tariffs on $60bn of Chinese imports”, which is obviously pretty alarming. A trade war between America and China would seem inevitable, as well as very bad indeed. The venerable Economist even reported: “President Trump announces tariffs on Chinese goods”. Well, that’s not quite true. I’ve read all the actual material coming out of the White House and tariffs have not been announced, and there’s no mention of $60 billion. There’s no announcement of tariffs of 25% in the memorandum that trump signed either – that figure is contained in a “Fact Sheet” published later, which says: “President Trump’s Administration will propose for public comment adding 25% additional tariffs on certain products that are supported by China’s unfair industrial policy”. “Will propose for public comment” is not exactly an announcement. I presume the $60 billion number comes from the next paragraph of the Fact Sheet: “Sectors subject to the proposed tariffs will include aerospace, information communication technology, and machinery”. I suppose journalists have added up all the Chinese imports in those sectors and come up with $60 billion, but that’s not clear in any of the articles I have read on the subject. That is, all the articles quote tariffs on $50 billion or $60 billion worth of imports without saying where that number comes from. You might think I’m nitpicking and that both the reporting and the market reaction are fair enough given the gravity of what’s happening. But I reckon investment decisions need to be made on facts rather than headlines that are, after all, designed to sell newspapers and generate ratings and clicks rather than to inform. Will there be a trade war? Maybe, but we’re a long way from the US actually taking action and even further from some kind of retaliation by China. It’s worth listing what the Section 301 investigation of China (unfair trade practices) that Trump commissioned last August has actually found, since this what this week’s announcements were based on and also because it also applies to Australia. This is an edited extract from the memo that Trump signed on Thursday:
- “First, China uses foreign ownership restrictions, including joint venture requirements, equity limitations, and other investment restrictions, to require or pressure technology transfer from U.S. companies to Chinese entities. China also uses administrative review and licensing procedures to require or pressure technology transfer…
- “Second, China imposes substantial restrictions on, and intervenes in, U.S. firms’ investments and activities, including through restrictions on technology licensing terms…
- “Third, China directs and facilitates the systematic investment in, and acquisition of, U.S. companies and assets by Chinese companies to obtain cutting-edge technologies and intellectual property and to generate large-scale technology transfer in industries deemed important by Chinese government industrial plans.
- “Fourth, China conducts and supports unauthorized intrusions into, and theft from, the computer networks of U.S. companies. These actions provide the Chinese government with unauthorized access to intellectual property, trade secrets, or confidential business information, including technical data, negotiating positions, and sensitive and proprietary internal business communications, and they also support China’s strategic development goals, including its science and technology advancement, military modernization, and economic development.”
My view: numbers 1 and 2 are pretty obvious and unarguable. I’m not sure there’s anything wrong with number 3 – isn’t that what everyone does? Beijing will protest most about number 4 – they have to really. IP theft is a serious charge. We all know it’s going on and it’s well organised, but this is going to be the flashpoint for the trade war. If Beijing gets outraged about being accused of IP theft but then quietly stops doing it, even for a while, then no trade war. If they get outraged and keep doing it, and the Trump Administration moves from proposing tariffs for public comment to actually imposing them … well, then all bets may be off. The most important thing for investors in the meantime is to not mistake headlines for truth. *This blog is from Alan Kohler's 'The Constant Investor' weekly overview. A website I'd encourage everyone to subscribe too for a good, well balanced read on all things financial.
Labor announced today a proposal to abolish cash refunds for excess dividend imputation credits. The SMSF Association has today warned that the Labor policy will cut about $5,000 of income from the median SMSF retiree earning about $50,000 a year in pension income. It also warns the proposed shake-up would affect more than one million Australians by changing rules that have been in place for nearly two decades.
Yet again, the self funded Retiree is being penalised for having their financial affairs in order. Australia’s dividend imputation system is an extraordinarily fair and efficient means of taxing company profits. The effect of dividend imputation is that gross profits are taxed in one of three streams depending on the nature of the RECIPIENT.
Profits retained by the company are taxed at one simple rate - 30%. Profits distributed to non-residents are also taxed at the 30% rate. The remainder - being profits distributed to Australian residents IS EFFECTIVELY TAXED AT THE PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE RECIPIENT. This strikes me as exceedingly fair - the effective tax rate would range between 0% and close to 50% and is solely dependent on the treatment otherwise accorded to that taxpayer under tax laws. Labor's proposal turns all of this on its head - those persons / entities with a LOW LEVEL of other taxable income would end up paying a higher effective rate on their share of gross company profits than persons or entities with a higher level of other income - seems absurd to me!
I have attached an informative piece on this latest development - taken from The Australian and written by Robert Gottliebsen.
Warren Buffett is an American business magnate, investor, & philanthropist who serves as the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. He is one of the most successful investors in the world & has a net worth of US$87.5 billion, making him the third wealthiest person in the United States & in the world.
Every year Warren writes a letter to the shareholders of his company, Berkshire Hathaway. The 2018 letter is linked below and is a must read - if you go to page 11 you can read about the decade long bet Warren had with active fund managers who bet $1,000,000 they could beat the index. The results are in and in the 10 years - they beat the index once. Its worse than that... they used several underlying managers to try and outperform & still the broader sharemarket outperformed with no input, no stock picking - just using an index fund. A favoured approach of ES&A we were delighted to read these results.
If you have time, Mr Buffett's letter is an interesting read.... but scroll to page 11 if you are time poor.
Of the Australian companies that have reported so far, more have beaten expectations than missed, most lifted guidance for next year, and three-quarters of them increased the dividend. Telstra aside (the company has halved the interim dividend as it grapples with the NBN), the average dividend increase is about 4% – twice the average wage rise. It is fair to say that the key contradiction in the Australian economy is on display. The best thing about the economy is that after years of relying on monetary stimulus and state spending, private sector companies are flying. The worst thing about the economy is that the wages those private sector companies are paying is stuck in the mud: wages growth is 1.9%, according to this week’s report from the ABS. So those who invest in companies are doing a lot better than those who work for them.
Imagine being in a boat in the ocean on a very still day. No wind. No swell. The water is as flat as a mirror. The calm goes on for a just long enough for you start to feel like it's normal. Then when a small wave comes, it feels huge, and regular waves feel enormous. As scary as it might feel...remember waves are normal. Occasional storms are normal. And the last thing you want to do when you get into one is abandon ship. (Sketch and words taken from the blog of Carl Richards of behaviorgap.com)
The sharemarket gyrations have started for 2018! The US share market is long overdue a decent correction and we might be at the start of it.
Take a read of Shane Oliver's view on markets to get the whole picture.
My take? It's going to be a volatile year but unless the US goes into recession (highly unlikely at this stage!!) then the market movements are only turbulence.
Got any questions? Just pick up the phone or send me an email.
Till next time,
Happy New Year!
Are you a new years's resolutions fan? If you fall into the no category, remember everyone in life needs something to look forward to. It doesn't have to be a big audacious goal (but they are good too) - even a small home project around the house or a weekend away with your family are great things to put on the to do list for 2018. Human beings work best if they have a reason to get out of bed every day and something to look forward to in the future!
Remember.... "Aim for the moon. If you miss, you may hit a star".