Julie's Blog Posts

Here you will find interesting quotes, useful information and links to helpful articles on a wide variety of subjects.

Quote for the Week!

The escalation in Ukraine tensions - implications for investors

Share markets are at high risk of more downside on fear of further escalation and uncertainty about sanctions/gas supply to Europe.
The history of crisis events shows a short term hit to markets followed by a rebound over 3 to 12 months.
Given the difficulty in timing market reactions to geopolitical developments the best approach for most investors is to stick to an appropriate long term investment strategy.

Read the attached synoposis from Shane Oliver - Chief Economist from AMP .

Happy New Year from the Team!

Jenny, Julie, Robyn, Deborah & Hotch the Whippet wish you all the best for a restful and happy festive season.

See you all in 2022.

The problem with confirmation bias

Humans make decisions first and then do their research, and that's backward.

I should know. I fall into the following trap again and again.

1- I have an idea.

2- “Somebody Smart” questions the idea.

3- I call my friend, Jason.

4- Jason tells me it’s a good idea.

5- I say, “See, it’s a great idea!”

6- I carry out my great idea.

7- My great idea often turns out to be a bad idea.

8- Oh well, it was fun anyway.

9- “Somebody Smart” rolls his eyes.

10- Aaaand… repeat.

Academics have a name for this behavior: it’s called Confirmation Bias. You’ve probably heard of it. It’s the process of making a decision before we do our research. Not only do we put the cart before the horse, but when we actually get around to doing our “research,” it just consists of gathering evidence that supports what we’ve already decided and summarily dismissing everything that disagrees with us.

We all do this. And it’s an incredibly difficult habit to break. But that’s not to say impossible.

There is one way I’ve found to circumvent this behavior. I call it the Confirmation Bias Prevention Program. Here’s how it works.

1- Find someone who disagrees with a decision you’re about to make (an anti-Jason).

2- Ask them why they disagree with you.

3- Carefully listen to what they have to say. Listen, as Stephen R. Covey says, “with the goal to understand, not to be understood.”

4- Continue listening until you can honestly say, “I now understand why you believe that.”

That’s it, it’s that simple. This doesn’t guarantee you won’t do the thing you want to do… but that’s not the point. The point is to carefully and thoughtfully analyze the pros and cons of a decision so you can make it in an unbiased way. And the Confirmation Bias Prevention Program is a great step in that direction.

(Written by Carl Richards of behaviourgap.com)

Quote of the Week